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東南亞廉價勞動力優(yōu)勢被機器人取代投資環(huán)境惡化
東南亞——這個原本被視為世界經(jīng)濟增長的一個亮點地區(qū),近段時間泰國政局出現(xiàn)動蕩、越南則出現(xiàn)針對外資的打砸搶燒的事件,使東南亞經(jīng)濟前景出現(xiàn)變數(shù)。
泰國政局動蕩對經(jīng)濟的影響已經(jīng)開始顯現(xiàn)。2014年*季度,泰國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增速環(huán)比下降了2.1%。由于泰國目前處于政治癱瘓狀態(tài),并且短期內(nèi)沒有迅速化解的可能,所有的跡象都顯示其經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)將持續(xù)疲弱。如果其政治局勢繼續(xù)動蕩下去,泰國經(jīng)濟將很有可能走向衰退。
作為東南亞第二大經(jīng)濟體,泰國經(jīng)濟的急劇萎縮會令整個地區(qū)不寒而栗。盡管如此,東南亞國家出現(xiàn)如1998~1999年的經(jīng)濟危機,像多米諾骨牌一樣崩盤的可能性極低。自那次經(jīng)濟危機后,東南亞國家的經(jīng)濟不斷發(fā)展,如今的財政基礎(chǔ)與上個世紀90年代相比牢固得多。2007~2008年的金融危機證明了東南亞國家的經(jīng)濟有能力渡過難關(guān)。那段時間肯定是一個困難的時期,特別是對于出口驅(qū)動的經(jīng)濟體來說更是如此,但是,東南亞經(jīng)濟體沒有退縮,其經(jīng)濟增長迅速得到了恢復。
由于東南亞經(jīng)濟體僅占經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出的一小部分,其經(jīng)濟衰退在亞洲或在范圍所引發(fā)的漣漪效應(yīng)將非常有限。但印尼可能是個例外。在世界銀行zui近發(fā)布的一份報告中,印尼被列為*經(jīng)濟體,為經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出貢獻了2.3%。更重要的是,印尼的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值占東盟的40%。因此如果印尼的經(jīng)濟增長失去動力,對于的影響可能很有限,而其東南亞鄰國一定會敏銳察覺。
中國是東盟zui大的貿(mào)易伙伴,無論在政治還是經(jīng)濟方面有何變動,在短期內(nèi)這種狀況不會發(fā)生改變。簡而言之,中國與東盟之間的經(jīng)濟非常緊密,不太可能中斷。然而,投資海外的中國公司需要密切關(guān)注東盟以及每個東南亞國家的政治形勢和社會經(jīng)濟變化。泰國和越南zui近出現(xiàn)的動蕩有著*不同的根源,但是結(jié)果卻很相似。政治問題會迅速蔓延至經(jīng)濟領(lǐng)域,并且對在這些國家開展業(yè)務(wù)構(gòu)成短期或*的障礙。
★當你了解世間一切的空性,你就知道學著不在乎。好多事情,不會因為你的不在乎而改變,也不會因為你在乎就變成你喜歡的樣子,不如把用來在乎的時間和精力去尋找真心的合作伙伴,快來,我在等你
☆我們詢價中有可能遇到很多人,有時正好比價,就會在一起討論一段時間,直到我們遇到真正想要合作的那個人,才會把余下的單子全部交給那個人,結(jié)伴一起到zui后。
★明媚的今天,距你只有一個的距離。
☆生命那么短,世界那么亂,我不想休息,不想離開旁,不愿和你擦肩而過。
@:程
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↑保障 〓質(zhì)保一年
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